One potential problem: Private credit is a $1.8 trillion domain. The secondary market totals around $200 billion, about evenly divided between equity and credit. If demands for paybacks really take off, it’s unclear that the secondary buying space is big enough to fully bolster and balance the market. Swain believes, however, that the investors will pour lots of new money into secondary funds as they see the good deals spread, giving them more capacity to help absorb the selling. Still, Swain already sees deals developing where CVs are purchasing surprisingly large portions of existing funds, in some cases replacing 85% or 90% of the existing investors.
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