In her spring statement the chancellor argued for fiscal discipline. That’s understandable. The OBR says borrowing will fall and that the “headroom” against her self-imposed rules has increased. Her message was that Britain needed “stability”. The logic is that discipline reassures markets, and that keeps borrowing affordable. But markets constrain the UK only insofar as its institutions let them. If energy prices spike, the economy suffers a drop in real income. The question is: who soaks up that loss? Households, firms or the state, via higher deficits? Privileging fiscal credibility might signal that she prefers households to absorb the shock rather than the state.
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